ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE ROUTINE R 062142Z APR 01 MIN ZYB PSN 357452J26 FM CNO WASHINGTON DC//N1// TO NAVADMIN UNCLAS //N00000// NAVADMIN 082/01 MSGID/GENADMIN/CNO WASHINGTON DC N1// SUBJ/STANDARD ENLISTED RETENTION MEASURES// RMKS/1. OUR STRATEGY OF ACHIEVING A BETTER BALANCE BETWEEN RECRUITING AND RETENTION TO CORRECT PERSONNEL PROFILE IMBALANCES AND MANNING SHORTAGES IS SHOWING POSITIVE RESULTS, LARGELY BECAUSE OF STRONG LEADERSHIP THROUGHOUT THE NAVY. YOUR COMMITMENT TO THIS STRATEGY HAS HELPED LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE RETENTION GAINS IN FY 2000 AND 2001. 2. OUR EFFORTS TO MAINTAIN THIS LEVEL OF SUCCESS RELY HEAVILY ON ACCURATE, TIMELY AND STANDARDIZED ENLISTED RETENTION DATA. WITH THIS IN MIND, A WORKING GROUP CONSISTING OF N1, FLEET, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES (CNA) AND NAVAL PERSONNEL RESEARCH STUDIES AND TECHNOLOGY (NPRST) REPRESENTATIVES MET TO ESTABLISH STANDARD MEASURES THAT WILL PROVIDE LEADERSHIP A CLEARER VIEW OF REENLISTMENT AND ATTRITION BEHAVIOR. THE RESULTING MEASURES DEFINED IN THE FOLLOWING PARAGRAPHS ALSO ALIGN NAVY WITH THOSE USED BY OTHER SERVICES. 3. THE REENLISTMENT AND ATTRITION RATES ADDRESSED BELOW WILL BE COMPUTED BY ZONE (CONSISTENT WITH SRB ZONES A, B, AND C) VICE ENLISTMENT TERM. TWO ADDITIONAL ZONES WERE ADDED TO PROVIDE PERSONNEL PLANNERS INCREASED CAPABILITY FOR RETENTION ANALYSIS: ZONE D INCLUDES SAILORS WITH MORE THAN 14 BUT LESS THAN 20 YEARS OF SERVICE, AND ZONE E INCLUDES SAILORS WITH 20 OR MORE YEARS OF SERVICE. 4. NAVY'S STANDARD REENLISTMENT RATE, DEFINED BELOW, MEASURES THE PROPORTION OF SAILORS WHO MAKE LONG-TERM STAY DECISIONS OUT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THOSE WHO STAY FOR LONG-TERMS OR LEAVE AT THE COMPLETION OF THEIR OBLIGATION. IT ALSO INCLUDES THOSE WHO DECIDE TO REENLIST EARLY. THE REENLISTMENT RATE IS COMPUTED AS FOLLOWS: (REENLISTMENTS PLUS LTE) DIVIDED BY (REENLISTMENTS PLUS LTE PLUS ALL EAOS LOSSES) NOTE 1: LTE = LONG TERM EXTENSION OF 24 MONTHS OR GREATER EXCLUDING THE 24-MONTH SCHOOL EXTENSION INCURRED BY A SIX-YEAR INITIAL OBLIGATION. NOTE 2: EAOS = END OF ACTIVE OBLIGATED SERVICE. EAOS LOSSES ARE THOSE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 DAYS OF A SAILOR'S EAOS. THE EAOS IS COMPUTED TO INCLUDE ALL NON-OPERATIVE EXTENSIONS. REENLISTMENT RATE HISTORY (ALL-NAVY PERCENTAGES SHOWN): ZONE A ZONE B ZONE C FY99 (OCT-FEB) 46.1 59.8 81.8 FY00 (OCT-FEB) 49.9 62.5 81.4 FY01 (OCT-FEB) 58.2 66.6 82.2 FY01 STRETCH GOALS 57 69 89 THE STRETCH GOALS ABOVE REFLECT THE 75.5 PERCENT TOP SIX ENLISTED PROGRAM AUTHORIZATIONS (EPA). EPA DIRECTLY REFLECTS FLEET MANPOWER AUTHORIZATIONS. N1 DEVELOPED THE CORRESPONDING STRETCH GOALS USING THE OBJECTIVE FORCE MODEL (OFM) TO DEFINE THE SUSTAINED LEVEL OF REENLISTMENT BEHAVIOR NECESSARY FOR NAVY TO GROW OVER THE FY01-07 FYDP TO THE FULL 75.5 PERCENT TOP SIX EPA REQUIREMENT. IT IS RECOGNIZED THESE GOALS CANNOT BE APPLIED EQUALLY TO ALL AREAS OF THE NAVY OR ENLISTED COMMUNITIES. FOR EXAMPLE, A 57 PERCENT ZONE A REENLISTMENT RATE MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY APPLICABLE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR CERTAIN HIGH TECH RATINGS. THE ABOVE GOALS SHOULD BE USED BY COMMANDERS TO GAUGE REQUIRED IMPROVEMENTS OVER HISTORICAL TRENDS. 5. IN THE AREA OF ATTRITION RATE CALCULATIONS, THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ARE INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO STANDARDIZED ATTRITION MEASURES FOR USE NAVY WIDE. A) QUESTION: WHAT CONSTITUTES ATTRITION? ANSWER: ATTRITION IS THE LOSS OF A SAILOR TO THE NAVY FOR ANY REASON PRIOR TO THE COMPLETION OF HIS/HER OBLIGATION. THEREFORE, IT DOES NOT INCLUDE SAILORS WHO ENTER OFFICER COMMISSIONING PROGRAMS BUT WOULD, FOR EXAMPLE, INCLUDE SAILORS WHO ARE DISCHARGED FOR MEDICAL REASONS, SAILORS WHO DIE, OR ARE ADMINISTRATIVELY DISCHARGED. B) QUESTION: WHAT IS THE NAVY'S STANDARD ATTRITION METRIC? ANSWER: NAVY'S STANDARD FOR MEASURING ATTRITION BEHAVIOR IS COHORT ATTRITION. COHORT ATTRITION CAPTURES THE PROPORTION OF AN INITIAL ACCESSION COHORT (THOSE WHO ENTER THE NAVY DURING A PARTICULAR MONTH OR YEAR) WHO LEAVE THE NAVY PRIOR TO THEIR EAOS. SINCE THE MID 1980S, THE COHORT ATTRITION RATE FOR SAILORS IN THEIR FIRST FOUR YEARS OF SERVICE HAS BEEN ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT -- IMPLYING THAT ABOUT 30-40 OF EVERY 100 SAILORS ACCESSED INTO THE NAVY LEFT PRIOR TO THE COMPLETION OF THEIR INITIAL FOUR YEAR OBLIGATION. C) QUESTION: ARE THERE OTHER MEANINGFUL ATTRITION MEASURES FOR NAVY USE? ANSWER: ALTHOUGH COHORT ATTRITION IS THE STANDARD MEASURE OF NAVY ATTRITION, IT IS ONLY VALID WHEN LOOKING AT ATTRITION FROM AN ALL-NAVY PERSPECTIVE. WHEN LOOKING AT ATTRITION FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A UNIT/COMMAND, COHORT ATTRITION IS NOT MEANINGFUL, BECAUSE FEW IF ANY SAILORS SPEND THEIR ENTIRE CAREERS IN A SINGLE UNIT/COMMAND. THEREFORE, TO MEASURE ATTRITION AT THESE LEVELS, AN ALTERNATIVE ATTRITION MEASURE, CALLED CROSS-SECTION ATTRITION WAS DEVELOPED. CROSS-SECTION ATTRITION MEASURES THE PROPORTION OF A UNIT/COMMAND'S NON-EAOS INVENTORY THAT LEAVES THE NAVY DURING A PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD. THE CROSS SECTION ATTRITION RATE IS COMPUTED AS FOLLOWS: (NON-EAOS LOSSES) DIVIDED BY (NON-EAOS INVENTORY IN THE PARTICULAR ZONE OF INTEREST) NOTE 1: NON-EAOS LOSSES ARE THOSE OCCURRING GREATER THAN 90 DAYS BEFORE A SAILOR'S EAOS. NON-EAOS INVENTORY INCLUDES ALL SAILORS IN A PARTICULAR ZONE WHO ARE GREATER THAN 90 DAYS FROM THEIR EAOS. THE EAOS IS COMPUTED TO INCLUDE ALL NON-OPERATIVE EXTENSIONS. CROSS SECTION ATTRITION RATE HISTORY (ALL-NAVY ANNUAL PERCENTAGES SHOWN): ZONE A ZONE B ZONE C FEB98-FEB99 14.2 4.7 3.1 FEB99-FEB00 13.0 3.2 2.7 FEB00-FEB01 12.0 2.9 2.5 THE ZONE A CROSS-SECTION ATTRITION RATES ABOVE ARE A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE ATTRITION DURING INITIAL TRAINING (ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT ANNUALLY OF ROUGHLY 50K SAILORS) AS WELL AS THOSE WHO LEAVE FROM THE FLEET (ABOUT 7-9 PERCENT ANNUALLY OF ROUGHLY 120K SAILORS). IN THE FUTURE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEPARATE TRAINING ATTRITION FROM FLEET ATTRITION IN ZONE A. FLEET UNITS WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MEASURE THEIR SPECIFIC STATUS. D) QUESTION: WHY ARE THE COHORT AND CROSS-SECTION ATTRITION RATES DIFFERENT AND CAN THEY BE RELATED TO ONE ANOTHER? ANSWER: AS STATED ABOVE, COHORT ATTRITION MEASURES NON-EAOS LOSSES OVER TIME, RELATIVE TO A FIXED BEGINNING POPULATION. CROSS-SECTION ATTRITION CAPTURES A SNAPSHOT OF NON-EAOS LOSSES COMING FROM THE POPULATION OF SAILORS ONBOARD, AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE COHORTS RATHER THAN FOLLOWING A SINGLE COHORT OVER TIME. HOW IS THE 40 PERCENT COHORT RATE RELATED TO THE 12 PERCENT CROSS-SECTION RATE? THE 40 PERCENT COHORT RATE (THROUGH 4 YEARS OF SERVICE) CAN BE APPROXIMATED AS FOLLOWS: IF NAVY LOSES (ON AVERAGE) ABOUT 12 PERCENT OF ITS ZONE A POPULATION EACH YEAR, ABOUT 88 PERCENT OF ZONE A SAILORS STAY. OVER A FOUR-YEAR PERIOD, 88 PERCENT ANNUAL CONTINUATION FOR A PARTICULAR COHORT TRANSLATES TO ABOUT A 60 PERCENT STAY RATE (88 PERCENT X 88 PERCENT X 88 PERCENT X 88 PERCENT) - OR ROUGHLY A 40 PERCENT LOSS RATE. ALTHOUGH THIS CORRELATION IS ONLY AN APPROXIMATION, IT DOES SHOW THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COHORT AND CROSS-SECTION MEASURES. DESPITE THE FACT THAT COHORT AND CROSS-SECTION ATTRITION RATES CAPTURE DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS AND POPULATIONS, BOTH ARE USEFUL AND NECESSARY STATISTICS IN SUMMARIZING ATTRITION BEHAVIOR BOTH NAVY-WIDE AND WITHIN INDIVIDUAL UNITS/COMMANDS. E) QUESTION: WHAT MEASURES WOULD BE MOST USEFUL TO THE FLEET IN ASSESSING THEIR PROGRESS IN MEETING ATTRITION REDUCTION GOALS? ANSWER: CNO HAS STATED AN OBJECTIVE TO REDUCE ATTRITION BY 25 PERCENT IN 2001. WITHOUT REFERENCE TO AN ATTRITION RATE, EACH UNIT/COMMAND CAN ACHIEVE THAT REDUCTION BY SIMPLY CUTTING THEIR NUMBER OF ATTRITION LOSSES BY 25 PERCENT. (IF A UNIT LOST 4 SAILORS LAST YEAR, THE TARGET IS TO LOSE 3 OR FEWER THIS YEAR). ATTRITION BEHAVIOR AS MEASURED BY THE CROSS-SECTION ATTRITION RATE WILL LIKEWISE DECLINE BY 25 PERCENT. IN GENERAL, FOR COMPARISONS ACROSS FLEET UNITS, THE CROSS-SECTION RATE IS THE APPROPRIATE MEASURE OF ATTRITION BEHAVIOR. 6. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, A NEW RETENTION MONITORING SYSTEM (RMS) HAS BEEN UNDER DEVELOPMENT AND IS BEING MERGED WITH A RETENTION SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN USE IN THE FLEET. TOGETHER, THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE THE CAPABILITY TO COMPUTE EACH OF THE RATES ABOVE. WHILE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD, CURRENT GOALS ARE TO WEB ENABLE THE COMBINED SYSTEM AND PROVIDE ACCESS TO FLEET USERS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT INITIAL ACCESS AT THE FLEET CAREER COUNSELOR LEVEL WILL BE AVAILABLE BY THE END OF MAY 2001. 7. POC IS CDR DAVID CALDWELL AT (703) 614-5377/DSN 224, E-MAIL: POORD@PERSNET.NAVY.MIL. 8. RELEASED BY VADM NORB RYAN, JR., N1.// BT